Friday, September 24, 2010

Why data analysis seems to produce no discernable value for "real" businesses - @Asymco: the existential theory

So even though they scorn talk of theory, managers use theory all the time. Whenever a rational manager takes any action, it’s predicated on a theory already in their head. Whenever they put forward a business plan they are employing a theory that if they do these things they will be successful.

This is the best "think-piece" I've read on data analysis. Asymco also produces beautiful competitive data analysis (data can be beautiful) on Apple. His insight on the work of data is fascinating.

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only reason somebody gets out in the middle of the night and buys baby formula is that they need it, and they’ve been waiting for it. - Bill Simon

“The paycheck cycle we’ve talked about before remains extreme. It is our responsibility to figure out how to sell in that environment, adjusting pack sizes, large pack at sizes the beginning of the month, small pack sizes at the end of the month. And to figure out how to deal with what is an ever-increasing amount of transactions being paid for with government assistance.

“And you need not go further than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month. And it’s real interesting to watch, about 11 p.m., customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items, baby formula, milk, bread, eggs,and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight, when electronic — government electronic benefits cards get activated and then the checkout starts and occurs. And our sales for those first few hours on the first of the month are substantially and significantly higher.

“And if you really think about it, the only reason somebody gets out in the middle of the night and buys baby formula is that they need it, and they’ve been waiting for it. Otherwise, we are open 24 hours — come at 5 a.m., come at 7 a.m., come at 10 a.m. But if you are there at midnight, you are there for a reason.”

This is from Bill Simon, CEO of Walmart.

A data analyst at Walmart probably tipped him off and he went -- just past midnight -- just to see it. I wonder what is going through his head when he stood right behind the cashiers and all he saw were "government electronic benefits cards" paying for, well, baby formula.

"Did he smile his work to see? Did he who made the lamb made thee?"

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Volcker on Keynesian Economics and Democracies - WSJ

On procyclicality — “It’s the hardest thing as a regulator in my opinion…when things are really going well, the economy is going well, the market is not disturbed, but you see developments in an institution or in markets that is potentially destabilizing, doing something about it is extremely difficult. Because the answer of the people in the markets is, ‘what are you talking about? Things are going really well. We know more about banking and finance than you do, get out of my hair, if you don’t get out of my hair I’m going to write my congressman.’”

If the responsibility of the Central Bank is to stimulate the economy during entrenched economic situations, it's other responsibility is to slow the economy during long booms. When the stock market is doing real well and everybody is popping the Dom, the Central Banker is suppose to be the guy that comes out and tell everybody to cork it back up and it's late, time to go home.

In a democracy, it's like high school: all the popular kids would just think you're a loser and make you a social pariah.

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Wednesday, September 15, 2010

You can not buy ideas or talent

You can not buy ideas or talent David Sep 14

36 comments Latest by Andre

When it comes to acquisitions, there are only two things worth buying: products and customers. When you buy either, you’re buying a solid stream of revenue. All you have to do is not fuck it up. That’s harder than you think, but the good news is that there is room for error. Fuck it up a little and only a few will leave. You still have the entrenched rest to make the purchase pay.

Not so with ideas or talent. These are the purchases of aspiration: Imagine if we took that scrappy idea with those underpaid, hungry champions, and we gave them all the resources in the world. They could paint all the colors of the rainbow and still have pixie dust left to spare!

Turns out that good ideas and strong talent is as fickle as it is seducing. As soon as you start making big-company compromises, the good idea turns average, and the average turns into a write-off.

Same goes with strong talent. As soon as they have to deal with three layers of reporting, quarterly budget cycles, and swing-door managers, they turn off the creativity and head for the exit. The latter part might take from three months to two years, but it will happen.

That leaves the acquisition with nothing but a dusty footnote in the P&L, but don’t worry, nothing will have been learned, so the cycle can repeat next year. There’s always a fresh crop of shiny ideas and sassy talent available to try that-which-does-not-work once more.

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Monday, September 06, 2010

A Newbie's Guide to Publishing: The Changing Face of Publishing

We might be looking at the beginning of the end of print.

Naturally, people are bemoaning this. Here are some of the things I've heard so often, they're becoming cliches:

  • I love print books
  • I'll never get rid of my book collection
  • I enjoy seeing a book on the shelf
  • I like the tactile experience of paper
  • Print books don't run out of batteries
  • Ebooks hurt my eyes
  • Ereaders are fragile and too expensive
  • I love the smell of paper books

Every time I read the word "I love the smell of paper books," I get this image in my head of someone taking big huff on their copy of "The Correction" when no one is looking.

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Sunday, September 05, 2010

Late night on the Ossington Strip

Analysts’ categorical failure -- @asymco's criticism of Gartner

The result is that good, smart managers trained to always base their decisions on hard facts, pick up these lowest-deonominator analyst reports to help decide which products to develop. And it should be obvious why they are surprised when products that did not show up on any market study suddenly take all their profits away.

Thanks Gartner.

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Saturday, September 04, 2010