Thursday, August 09, 2007

Ambushed by NINJA: ECB, Fed offer additional liquidity

I go off the net for two weeks and, all of a sudden, the world goes to
shit.

I was still working on my manual. Decided to take the subway somewhere
else to keep working. Standing on the platoform waiting for the train.
One of those CP24 news tickers on the screen: ECB offers $130 bil at
discount rate of 4% to calm market.

What?

Next news item: Fed to follow suit with $12 bil in liquidty.
Next news item: Bank of Canada also indicated that it stands by with
additional liquidity.

Um, WTF?

I wasn't sure what was going on. Why are all the central banks around
the world signalling WWIII.

I was kinda watching CBC Newsworld this morning and everything seems to
be going fine.

Wait, next news item: Oil prices dropped to $72/barrel despite declining
gasoline, oil US reserve.

Now I am very curious. I couldn't get a cell reception in the subway
station. So I bought a newspaper! Imagine that!

Globe and Mail -- um -- nothing. Their idea of a headline yesterday for
the business page was "Canada's missing out in India: Tata." Wow, news I
can use! In fact, page after page of the Globe is talking about buying
opportunities after the recent stock plung.

That the stock market has been plunging is not news. It has been one
sick market since the whole subprime market with their "No Income, No
Job, no Asset" loans (NINJA) is finally destabilizing the credit market
is well know for the last half year at least.

But the bigwigs on Wall Street said they have it covered. Bear Stearn
had said that it was contained. And Bear Stearn has the most exposure to
the subprime market. HSBC is not exactly going bankrupt. So everything
is going to be alright, right?

The last six months, a certain silence surround the topic. Elephant in
the room. Everybody is talking around it. Giving it a positive spin.
"Credit crunch woes: How to profit from it." "Manulife shops for bargin
assets prices."

There were hardly hard numbers to be found about what kind of exposure
it is. Most of it are in hedge funds owned by banks or hidden up with
other numbers. Just a lot of reassuring words from pink, old men that
everything is going to be a-okay.

Now I am sitting in a Tim Horton's, reading Jim Cramer's TheStreet.com
because all the major news outlets are ignoring the story. Smiling blond
couples from the Younge and Eglington, an area infused with bank money
from Bay Street, are covorting. Is it my imagination? People here don't
seem too worried. But I am worried.

Central bankers don't go around telling artsy "business page" reporters
that there is plenty of liquidity unless there isn't. They also don't
emphasize that they are putting out $130 bil unless it is some strange
PR campagin except as some sort of last ditch effort to convince Main
Street investors to park their money exactly where it is.

But why?

What the fuck is going on?

I am reading the Globe's website and some analysists are worried about a
consumer recession.

There is a fear of collapse of Asian and European banks. The word
"contagion" is dropping from every fat banker lips.

Fuck it all, I am going back to my manual.

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